To discuss at this table present on the panel were: Ilir Deda (Executive Director of KIPRED), Mimoza Kusari-Lila (Minister of Trade and Industry) and Jan Braathu (Ambassador of the Kingdom of Norway in Kosovo). After the introductory speech and the encouragement of the panelists for the publication, the presentation of the analysis was made by the author Shpend Kursani, who emphasized that “the economic size of Kosovo is very small in terms of the general economy of the region and that this is more due to the lack of internal economic development, namely the lack of the production and industry sector, which is not even sufficient for internal consumption, and which is mainly covered by imports. In other words, Kosovo has an economy which does not participate in production in this region but mainly consumes from it”.
The analysis states that during the years 2008-2012 there was generally an economic growth of Kosovo with an annual average of 4.50% accompanied by high inflation of more than 5%, which also negatively affects the real growth of the economy of Kosovo. While, in the commercial aspect, the author points out that during the five-year period, Kosovo has gradually and for a nuance integrated more with the countries outside this region where the representation of these countries in the general commercial portfolio of Kosovo has increased by 3%. The integration of Kosovo’s trade with countries outside the region has been done only in favor of imports from these countries to Kosovo, while in terms of export, it is the countries within the region that have increased their participation in Kosovo’s trade portfolio. It is emphasized here that Turkey is the only country, in this case a block in the region, with which Kosovo has increased integration for both imports and exports.
In terms of commercial partnership, in the years 2008-2012, Albania is the first for the export of Kosovo, followed by Macedonia and Montenegro, while in terms of import partners, the first three since 2008-2012 are Macedonia, Serbia and Turkey, with a significant increase in Serbia. As for the specifics of the goods where Kosovo is a visible net importer, it is said that the trade of industrial goods of Kosovo with the region is three times greater than the trade of food goods.
The impact of the construction of the highway has resulted in the increase in the use of the customs point with Albania, but not in the integration of the economies of both countries. The construction of the highway according to Kursan has only affected the use of the territory of Kosovo and Albania for the use of the territories of these countries for import and export from and to other countries. In relation to the topic, the analysis states that Hani i Elezit was the most used customs point for import – export, where 51% of Kosovo’s exports passed through this point, and 34% of imports entered Kosovo through this point in 2008. -2012.The impact of the construction of the highway has resulted in the increase in the use of the customs point with Albania, but not in the integration of the economies of both countries. The construction of the highway according to Kursan has only affected the use of the territory of Kosovo and Albania for the use of the territories of these countries for import and export from and to other countries. In relation to the topic, the analysis states that Hani i Elezit was the most used customs point for import – export, where 51% of Kosovo’s exports passed through this point, and 34% of imports entered Kosovo through this point in 2008. -2012.
In terms of border points, the analysis concluded in smuggling and numerous inconsistencies between trade data with the countries of the region, or even official statistical inconsistencies between the Statistical Agencies of the respective countries and those of Kosovo. The 58-day reciprocity with Serbia was also analyzed, where goods from Serbia were mainly replaced by those from Macedonia and Croatia, and less from Greece and Bulgaria. While according to this analysis, products from Albania or Turkey have not replaced Serbian products during the reciprocity period.
As one of the key topics in the economic development of the country, investments from abroad, in the analysis it is estimated that Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) in Kosovo within the period 2008-2012 have recorded a decrease of 37.61%, while FDI from the region has recorded a decrease of more small amount of 11.55%, where Turkey takes the first place as the biggest investor, followed by Slovenia, Bulgaria and so on.
This work is only the first of five areas that KIPRED is doing in relation to Kosovo’s relations with the countries of the region, where the other four (analysis of Kosovo’s political relations with the region; analysis of relations in Kosovo’s security sector with the region; analyzing Kosovo’s inter-ethnic relations with the region; and Kosovo’s membership in regional organizations and forums) will be published in the meantime by the end of 2014. These publications are supported by the Embassy of the Kingdom of Norway in Kosovo.